Transport problems need to be addressed FIRST
Record producer and exporter of coal in Russia should not be misleading. At the international conference `Coal Russia and CIS` Head of Energy Research Institute of Natural Monopolies (IPEM) Alexander Grigoriev made a presentation #39;The Russian coal industry: export `pause#39; and` prospective risks.
At the beginning of his speech, Alexander Grigoriev noted that this year the Russian coal industry with high probability again set a record for key performance indicators. Thus, according to expert forecasts, production in 2012 will be 350 billion tons, the supply to consumers - 310 billion tons, including exports - 124 billion tons, however, as noted by the speaker, the international price of thermal coal in 2012 dropped significantly in October accounted for about $ 90 / t (October 2011 - about $ 130 / t).
As Alexander Grigoriev, global decline in coal prices is a definite cause for concern. For example, if the price on FOB Russian steam coal, which provides cost-effective supply of around $ 90 / t, the equivalent figure for Australia is $ 45 / t At the same time, according to the expert, the price of Russian coal significant proportion of the cost of shipping to the port ($ 30 / t, Australia - $ 5 / t). As the speaker noted, the transport problem today is a major limitation of the coal industry in Russia.
Next, Alexander Grigoriev noted that exports are a major engine of growth of the coal industry in Russia and its #39;Achilles heel#39;. The speaker highlighted the following key risks for the industry: tightening environmental regulations in the countries of Europe, #39;decarbonization#39; power, input non-coal generating capacity in the EU - nuclear power, renewable energy, thermal power plants with natural gas, focus on Asia `cheap` charcoal, making China the risks of importing in the coal exporter, the growth in coal exports from the U.S., as a consequence of #39;shale gas revolution#39;; further rise in prices of coal transportation through the territory of Russia.
Alexander Grigoriev drew the audience#39;s attention on the fact that without the development of the domestic coal market further strengthening of the Russian coal industry looks problematic. According to the expert, you need to prepare for increased competition in the global market and as a response to develop the domestic market: to stimulate the increase of labor productivity in coal companies to develop the market of products of coal chemistry, as well as to orient the domestic power for the construction of coal-fired power plants.
